1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to a method of determining a reserving order piece number and a final order number of merchandises, and more specifically relates to a method of determining a reserving order number and a final order number of merchandises in retailing trades for a variety of merchandises in retailing stores such as supermarkets, for example, foods such as seasonings, bottled and canned foods, confectioneries and beverages, household goods such as expendable miscellaneous goods, perishable foods such as meat, fish and side dishes and, in particular, advantageously applicable for goods called as daily delivered goods such as milk, tofu (bean curd) fermented soybeans.
2. Conventional Art
In a conventional method of ordering merchandises employed in retailing business, a future sales number is estimated according to the past sales performance, and a necessary order number is calculated so as to fulfill the sales estimation number, in that the method of ordering merchandises is primarily based on stock number of respective merchandises, for example, when :the stock of a certain merchandise reaches to a predetermined number of X, an order of a predetermined number of Y is issued or alternatively at the time of ordering, the stock is checked and the order number is determined in such a manner that the stock is always kept at a predetermined number Z, in that an order of (Z minus checked stock number) is issued at this instance. Accordingly, the stock check is always required, for this reason an error likely occurs, and in addition it is also necessary to take into account of a time interval from the ordering time to a delivery time of the goods which complexes such conventional merchandise ordering number determining method.
Moreover, with regard to merchandises of which freshness is very important such as milk, tofu and fermented soybeans, there arose further problems, for example, it is too late to determine the next order number after checking the stock at the night of very day concerned, and further, if the order number of merchandises is determined based on an automatic stock number calculation without actual check and when errors in the automatic stock number calculation increase, the such order system can not properly work.
In retail stores such as supermarkets, it was a very difficult task to accurately stock merchandises so as to meet the estimated sales number, to reduce loss of sales opportunity due to out-of stock and to minimize loss of freshness deterioration due to unsold with regard to the merchandises of which freshness quickly deteriorates generally called as daily delivered merchandises such as milk, tofu and fermented soybeans. Sales number thereof varies depending on the temperature and when it rains, the number of customers decreases and the sales number decreases accordingly. When such merchandises were unsold, freshness thereof deteriorates which leads to losses due to bargaining or disposal. If the stocking is carried out accurately, it is possible to provide for customers only fresh merchandises which increases the sales, reduces losses and improves the business operating efficiency.
The above explained points are likely applicable to perishable foods such as meat, fish and side dishes.
An object of the present invention is to provide a method of determining a reserving number and a final order number of merchandises, in particular, in retailing business which reduces difference between estimated daily sales number of merchandises concerned and the sales performance thereof, suppresses a large variation of order amount of merchandises concerned to suppliers, reduces loss of sales opportunities due to out-of stock and loss of freshness deterioration with regard to daily delivered merchandises and perishable foods as well as prevents an adverse effect to the business activities of the suppliers concerned.
According to the present invention, an estimated sales number of a merchandise concerned for each individual day of the week (hereinbelow called as standard sales number for each individual day of the week) is determined based on past sales performance for each individual day of the week, the standard sales number for each individual day of the week is corrected by making use of parameters such as a standard customer number correction coefficient, a standard sales number correction coefficient and an out-of stock safety coefficient, a reserving order of the merchandise concerned of which number is somewhat larger than the corrected standard sales number for each individual day of the week is informed to the supplier concerned, and then the difference between the reserving order number of the very day concerned and the sales performance number thereof is subtracted or added from and to the reserving order number for the next of next time to determine for the final order number for the next of next time without checking actual stock number thereof, whereby an accurate merchandise ordering can be achieved in response to always varying sales circumstances.
More specifically, the method of determining a reserving order number and a final order number of a merchandise according to the present invention is achieved by performing the following steps, in that, the step of retrieving an out-of stock safety coefficient xcex1 of a merchandise X which is an object for determining a reserving order number and a final order number thereof from an out-of stock safety map which is stored in a memory and contains respective out-of stock safety coefficients assigned for individual merchandises and classified while using as parameters a maximum sales performance number in a day and an average sales performance number in a day during a predetermined sampling period for each of the merchandises which are stored and up-dated in the memory and using as a variable a day or days from the production date of the merchandise X to the end date of best taste thereof, and outputting the retrieved out-of stock safety coefficient xcex1; the step of computing a standard sales number D for each individual day of the week while averaging the sales performance for each individual day of the week with regard to the merchandise during the predetermined sampling period which are stored and up-dated in the memory and outputting the computed standard sales number D for each individual day of the week; the step of computing a standard customer number B for each individual day of the week corresponding to the standard sales number D for each individual day of the week while averaging customer numbers for each concerned day of the week during the predetermined sampling period which are stored and up-dated in the memory and outputting the computed standard customer number B for each individual day of the week; the step of inputting and storing an estimated future customer number A for each individual day of the week; the step of computing a standard customer number correction coefficient C based on the estimated customer number A and the standard customer number B for each individual day of the week and outputting the computed standard customer number correction coefficient C; the step of computing a first corrected standard sales number E for each individual day of the week based on the standard customer number correction coefficient C and the standard sales number D for each individual day of the week; the step of inputting and storing a sales number variation coefficient xcex2 of the merchandise X which is,the object for determining a reserving order number and a final order number thereof which primarily varies depending on strength of sales price (strength of low price impression) of the merchandise; the step of computing a second corrected standard sales number Exc3x97xcex2 based on the sales number variation coefficient xcex2 and the first corrected standard sales number E for each individual day of the week and outputting the computed second corrected standard sales number Exc3x97xcex2; the step of computing a reserving order number of the merchandise X for a concerned day of the week based on the second corrected standard sales number Exc3x97xcex2 for each individual day of the week and the retrieved out-of stock safety coefficient a and outputting the computed reserving order number; the step of computing a difference between a sales performance of at least one day prior to the date or time at which the reserving order number for the concerned day of the week computed and outputted in the previous step can be correctable and the reserving order number of the corresponding one day and subtracting or adding the difference from and to the reserving order number for the concerned day of the week to determine a reserving order correction number and outputting the determined reserving order correction number; and the step of computing a final order number for the concerned day of the week with regard to the merchandise X by adding or subtracting the reserving order correction number for the concerned day of the week to and from the reserving order number for the concerned day of the week and outputting the computed final order number for the concerned day of the week.